Updated — · 0 min fresh
Current Elevation
Inflow
7,262cfs
Outflow
8,510cfs
YTD Inflow
48%of avg
At a Glance
Every headline number broken out — green = good / rising, yellow = buffer, red = below reference / falling.
Capacity
5.70 MAF of 24.32 MAF full pool
Below Full Pool
Full pool is 3700 ft MSL
Below Same Date Last Year
Year-over-year elevation drop
Today's Change
Falling
Days per Foot
Days to fall 1 ft at current 14-day rate · -0.010 ft/day
Feet per Month
14-day rate × 30 · falling. Entry/exit runoff ramps can swing this sharply.
Short-Window Annualized Pace
Extrapolation of the current 14-day pace (−0.027 ft/day) — noisy near runoff entry/exit. NOT a forecast; see "Est. Annual Drop (Trend)" for the historical trend.
Est. Annual Drop (Trend)
Post-2000 net loss averaged across full water years (drought era). Smooths runoff-window noise: wet years +20 to +50 ft, dry years −30 to −50 ft, long-run mean is a steady decline.
Surface Area
78,142 acres at 3,528 ft
Sq Miles When Full
161,390 acres at full pool 3,700 ft · today is 48% of full-pool surface
Evaporation (est.)
~1,227 AF/day · 5.73 ft/yr × surface area
Bank Seepage (est.)
~517 AF/day · scaled from 390 KAF/yr full-pool avg
Emergency Runoff from FG (Flaming Gorge)
Max − min of recent Powell elevation — proxy for upstream-driven rise. WY DROA published total: 0.450 MAF (~5.76 ft equiv at current surface area).
Flaming Gorge Remaining
Upstream rescue reservoir · full pool 3.79 MAF, currently ~76% full at ~6,025 ft. Of that, ~1.5 MAF is authorized under DROA for emergency release to Powell — one dry spring effectively exhausts it.
Lake Mead Elevation
Downstream sibling · every foot Powell releases moves Mead. Tier-1 shortage trigger 1,075 ft · min-power 950 ft · dead pool 895 ft. Currently 32% full.
Surface Water Temp
Seasonal estimate at Wahweap
Canyon Profile
Every key threshold · current elevation rotated inside the water column
Era Comparison · Wet vs Drought
Three columns, two rows. Top row = the world the Colorado River Compact assumed. Bottom row = the world we actually live in.
Avg Runoff 1983–2000
Wet era baseline · BOR unregulated inflow average
Avg Lake Level 1983–2000
Lake routinely near full pool 3,700 ft
Avg Releases 1983–2000
Equalization era · heavy releases to Lake Mead
Avg Runoff 2001–Now
Millennium drought era · -39% vs 1983–2000
Avg Lake Level 2001–Now
47 ft lower than the 1983–2000 average
Avg Releases 2001–Now
Drought-era release schedule · -22% vs 1983–2000
Historical by Day
22,813 daily elevation readings from 1963-12-28 through 2026-06-12.
All-Time High
Set 1983-07-14
All-Time Low (record)
Reached 1964-05-11 (pre-fill era)
All-Time Low Since Filled
Lowest reading since the reservoir first reached full pool in June 1980 — recorded 2023-04-13. (Watch for a new low later in 2026.)
Most Water Gained in 24h
2023-05-21: 3,545.86 → 3,547.44 ft.
Biggest 24h Drop
1985-08-02: 3,697.00 → 3,695.85 ft
First Recorded Day
1963-12-28 (filling)
Latest Reading
2026-06-12
Lowest Reading Since 2000
2023-04-13 · 7.80 ft above that low today
Today's Historical Percentile
Today sits at the 5.6th percentile of all 22,813 days on record (100% = highest ever).
Date-range search
Pick any window between 1963-12-28 and 2026-06-12.
801 points shown from 2021-06-12 → 2026-06-12 (full 22,813-day record drives all stats).
Water Cycle (year overlay)
Every selected year plotted day-by-day on the same Jan–Dec axis — see the annual fill/drain cycle and how each year stacks up.
Annual cycle: snowpack runoff drives the rise May–July; the lake drains the rest of the year. 1983 = record fill, 2022 = modern low.
Key Indicators
The numbers that matter for closures, hydropower, and downstream releases.
Natural Inflow Water-Year (since Oct 1)
vs 6.71 MAF avg WY-to-date · 48% of normal · WY2026
Down vs Same Date Last Year
Year-over-year elevation drop
Total Drop Water Year (since Oct 1, WY2026)
Oct 1 2025 elev ~3,558 ft → today 3,527.7 ft
25-Yr Avg Annual Inflow
Historical mean of natural inflow into Powell, 2001–2025
Current Year MAF Inflow (WY2026)
Water-year-to-date natural inflow vs 6.71 MAF avg to-date · 48% of normal
Avg Annual Loss (25 yr)
Mean Jan-1 elevation loss across observed 25-yr window (net drop) — explains the long-term millennium-drought trajectory
Above Power Generation
Min power pool: 3490 ft (Glen Canyon Dam turbines)
Above Dead Pool
Dead pool: 3370 ft (no release possible)
Water Below Dead Pool
Dead pool 3370 ft → lake bottom 3132 ft (original Colorado River channel). Substantial water remains below dead pool but cannot exit the dam.
Est. Level Next Apr 1
Projection for Apr 1, 2027 (25-yr seasonal pattern)
Ramps Open
Stateline Aux (3,520 ft) open · Bullfrog North open with challenge (newly excavator-extended June 2026, limited single-lane operation, 4WD-only approach)
Antelope Point Valet Ramp
Operational floor ≈ 3530.7 ft · ramp terminates at a vertical canyon cut — no extension possible. Closed until lake rises.
Buffer Before Last Ramp Closes
Until Stateline Auxiliary Ramp becomes unusable
Below Wahweap Main Launch
Wahweap min safe: 3550 ft · currently BELOW
Below Antelope Point Business Ramp
Antelope Point Business Ramp min: 3540 ft · currently BELOW
Today's Elevation Change
Falling
River Flows
Upper Colorado tributaries feeding Powell
vs Last Year YTD
Down 33.7 ft vs same date 1yr ago
Feet Below Full Pool
Full pool 3700 ft — last reached June 1983
% of Live Capacity
Usable column between dead pool (3370 ft) and full pool (3700 ft)
Years to Dead Pool at Current Trend
Naive linear extrapolation at -9.7 ft/yr — assumes no policy intervention
Elevation Lost Since 2000 Peak
Net surface drop from the last sustained full-pool era (millennium drought signature)
Recent Trend
Daily elevation, content, and the inflow / outflow balance.
Today vs Recent
Each number is today, with the last two weeks underneath for instant context.
Elevation
3,527.72 ft
Daily Change
-0.05 ft
Inflow
7,262 cfs
Outflow
8,510 cfs
Storage Content
5.70 MAF
Avg Daily Drop (7-day)
-0.027 ft/day
Net Daily Volume
-2,475 AF
Storage % of Capacity
23.4%
Closures Model
Sorted high → low. Bars are color-coded by margin status; the cyan line is today's elevation.
Margin Tracker
Big number = feet BELOW that threshold at today's elevation (3,527.72 ft). Green = currently above (margin remaining); red = already below.
Full Pool
Threshold 3700 ft · BELOW operational level · Max design elevation
Gunsight → Padre Bay Cut-Off
Threshold 3613 ft · BELOW operational level
Dominguez Butte Cut-Off
Threshold 3602 ft · BELOW operational level
Antelope Point Public Ramp
Threshold 3588 ft · BELOW operational level
Castle Rock Cut-Off
Threshold 3583 ft · BELOW operational level
Bullfrog Main Launch
Threshold 3578 ft · BELOW operational level
Stateline Launch
Threshold 3564 ft · BELOW operational level
Halls Crossing
Threshold 3556 ft · BELOW operational level
Wahweap Main Launch
Threshold 3550 ft · BELOW operational level
Bullfrog Spur (< 25')
Threshold 3549 ft · BELOW operational level
Antelope Point Business Ramp
Threshold 3540 ft · BELOW operational level
Bullfrog North Ramp
Threshold 3529 ft · BELOW operational level
Stateline Auxiliary Ramp
Threshold 3520 ft · above (margin)
Hydropower Min Pool
Threshold 3490 ft · above (margin) · Glen Canyon turbines lose reliable generation below this
River Outlet Works Intake
Threshold 3470 ft · above (margin) · Lowest reliable release pathway
Dead Pool
Threshold 3370 ft · above (margin) · No water can leave the dam
25-Year Context
Jan 1 elevation makes the Millennium Drought obvious — 2002 (~3666 ft) sat far above today's level (~3565 ft). Releases are mostly fixed by the 2007 Interim Guidelines.
Jan 1 Elevation — last 25 years (ft MSL)
Blue line = observed Jan 1 elevation 2001–2026 with projected 2027–2029. Trend labels: − = annual loss in ft/yr, + = annual gain. High/Low rates are mean year-over-year Jan 1 deltas within wet vs dry year groups (not regression slopes — those flatten because both groups cluster in time).
Each year: natural inflow minus the 8.23 MAF compact-driven release schedule. Negative = water was withdrawn from storage. Positive = storage gained.
The 8.23 MAF/yr release floor is the Lower Basin's full compact + Mexico delivery requirement. Years where the green/red bar dips below zero are years Powell was a net withdrawal — water bank balance fell. Sum of negative bars across 25 years = the cumulative draw-down driving the current crisis.
Annual Natural Inflow (MAF)
Annual Release from Powell (MAF)
Spring Runoff Apr 12 → Jul 1 (MAF) — last 25 years
Apr 15 → Jul 1 natural runoff into Powell — the only window the lake naturally rises. 2002 = 0.68 MAF (driest on record), 2011 = 12.45 MAF (wettest). 2025 = 0 MAF natural — every observed rise this spring came from Flaming Gorge emergency releases, not snowmelt.
Flaming Gorge Releases to Powell (MAF) — normal vs emergency DROA
Flaming Gorge typically releases ~0.85–1.0 MAF/yr to Powell under the 2006 Record of Decision. The red stack is the additional DROA emergency volume: 2021 = 125 KAF, 2022 = 500 KAF, 2023 = 0 (record snowpack, no DROA needed), 2024 = 0, 2025 = 0, 2026 = ~450 KAF (current WY, supplemental releases offsetting near-zero natural runoff).
Peak Snowpack — Upper Colorado SWE (% of normal) by year
Upper Colorado basin peak Snow Water Equivalent (% of 1991-2020 normal). Years above 100% drove the 2005, 2011, 2017, 2019, and 2023 runoff surges; 2002 (53%) was the snowpack collapse that started the modern drought.
Snowpack Conversion
Theoretical melt assumes 100% of Upper Colorado SWE arrives at Powell. Reality is far lower — sublimation, upstream soil absorption, ET, and upstream reservoir capture eat the difference.
Why the actual runoff is so much lower than reported SWE
Reported peak SWE is a snapshot of frozen water sitting on a high-elevation surface. It is not "water in the lake." Between that peak measurement and the Powell inflow gauge, the snowpack has to survive three escalating losses:
The uncontrolled risk is warm-wind sublimation during traditionally cold months. Climate models and observations show February–March warm/dry/windy events that used to be rare are now common:
Net result: even an average snow year now routinely yields a 30–50% snowpack-to-runoff loss at Powell. The loss is uncontrollable, accelerating, and absent from the headlines.
Current SWE
Upper Colorado basin SWE — percent of 1991–2020 normal.
Snowpack → Estimated Water
Theoretical melt volume at 48% of normal (15 MAF basin avg × SWE ratio).
Snowpack → Theoretical Rise
If 100% of SWE reached Powell at today's surface area (78,142 acres).
Actual Apr–Jul 2026 Runoff
Observed — near zero. Snowmelt vanished into dry upstream soils and sublimation.
Snowpack → Loss · WY 2025
Peak SWE
91%
Theoretical
13.65MAF
Actual Runoff
2.85MAF
10.80 MAF lost (79% of theoretical) — sublimation + upstream soil absorption + upstream reservoir capture before water ever reaches Powell.
Snowpack → Loss · WY 2026
Peak SWE
48%
Theoretical
7.20MAF
Actual Runoff
0.10MAF
7.10 MAF lost (99% of theoretical) — sublimation + upstream soil absorption + upstream reservoir capture before water ever reaches Powell.
24-Month Forecast
25-year monthly pattern replayed from today (3,527.7 ft), with positive runoff months scaled down to match the current failed-runoff year.
Jun 26
3,527.7
mo +1.0 ft
no-power +37.7 ft
Jul 26
3,527.2
mo −0.6 ft
no-power +37.2 ft
Aug 26
3,523.8
mo −3.4 ft
no-power +33.8 ft
Sep 26
3,519.9
mo −3.9 ft
no-power +29.9 ft
Oct 26
3,516.5
mo −3.4 ft
no-power +26.5 ft
Nov 26
3,514.3
mo −2.2 ft
no-power +24.3 ft
Dec 26
3,512.0
mo −2.2 ft
no-power +22.0 ft
Jan 27
3,510.4
mo −1.7 ft
no-power +20.4 ft
Feb 27
3,509.0
mo −1.3 ft
no-power +19.0 ft
Mar 27
3,508.1
mo −0.9 ft
no-power +18.1 ft
Apr 27
3,508.8
mo +0.7 ft
no-power +18.8 ft
May 27
3,511.0
mo +2.2 ft
no-power +21.0 ft
Jun 27
3,513.6
mo +2.6 ft
no-power +23.6 ft
Jul 27
3,513.1
mo −0.6 ft
no-power +23.1 ft
Aug 27
3,509.7
mo −3.4 ft
no-power +19.7 ft
Sep 27
3,505.8
mo −3.9 ft
no-power +15.8 ft
Oct 27
3,502.4
mo −3.4 ft
no-power +12.4 ft
Nov 27
3,500.2
mo −2.2 ft
no-power +10.2 ft
Dec 27
3,498.0
mo −2.2 ft
no-power +8.0 ft
Jan 28
3,496.3
mo −1.7 ft
no-power +6.3 ft
Feb 28
3,494.9
mo −1.3 ft
no-power +4.9 ft
Mar 28
3,494.0
mo −0.9 ft
no-power +4.0 ft
Apr 28
3,494.8
mo +0.7 ft
no-power +4.8 ft
May 28
3,496.9
mo +2.2 ft
no-power +6.9 ft
Each card shows projected month-end elevation, previous-month change, and distance to the no-power generation level (3490 ft). Example: 3491 ft = no-power +1.0 ft.
5-Year Projection
Replays the 2000–2024 month-over-month pattern from today's level with current weak-runoff spring rise and amplified drawdown — projected 60 months forward until the lake converges on the no-power threshold (3490 ft).
The 2023 emergency rise is gone — even a normal runoff cannot offset the steady 8.23 MAF/yr release. This 60-month projection carries the current weak-runoff signal forward and converges on the no-power threshold.
BOR Emergency Scenario
Reclamation's mitigation posture: Glen Canyon outflow cut from 8.23 → ~7.0 MAF/yr and ~500 KAF of Flaming Gorge DROA water timed for spring 2027 and 2028. If spring 2027 runoff is dry the lake approaches min-power; a dry 2028 ends generation.
BOR mitigation scenario: 15% release reduction + Flaming Gorge DROA boosts during Apr–Jul 2027 and 2028. Spring runoff itself remains scaled to the current failed-runoff signal, so a dry spring still drives the lake toward the no-power threshold.
Monthly Water Balance
Last 36 months as real monthly totals: blue = inflow, red = total losses, white line = net storage change.
Blue and red bars are side-by-side monthly totals. When blue is lower than red, Powell lost storage that month. White line shows the net gain/loss in MAF.
Analog-Year Forecast
Finds the 5 historical years whose peak SWE most closely matches the latest snowpack (48% of normal) and replays each of their actual 3-year elevation trajectories from today.
+1y (2027)
3,478.7 ft
Range: 3,464.7 – 3,506.7 ft(42.0 ft spread)
+2y (2028)
3,464.7 ft
Range: 3,438.7 – 3,553.7 ft(115.0 ft spread)
+3y (2029)
3,477.7 ft
Range: 3,417.7 – 3,564.7 ft(147.0 ft spread)
Pure analog method — for each analog year, the actual jan1→jan1 deltas of the three following years are stacked onto today's elevation. The band reflects historical outcome diversity for similar snowpacks; it does not include guideline-change or DROA effects.
Annual Temperature
Page, AZ / Wahweap climatology — monthly average daytime high, overnight low (air, °F) and Lake Powell surface water temperature.
Red line = daytime air high. Yellow line = overnight air low. Blue line = lake surface water temperature (Wahweap buoy climatology). Water lags air by roughly 4–6 weeks — coolest in Feb, warmest mid-Jul through Aug.
Boat Ramp Status
Currently 2 of 9 ramps usable at elevation 3,527.72 ft.
| Launch | Min Safe Elev | Margin | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stateline Auxiliary Ramp | 3,520 | +7.7 ft | ● Usable |
| Bullfrog North Ramp | 3,529 | -1.3 ft | ● Usable |
| Antelope Point Business Ramp | 3,540 | -12.3 ft | ● Closed |
| Bullfrog Spur (< 25') | 3,549 | -21.3 ft | ● Closed |
| Wahweap Main Launch | 3,550 | -22.3 ft | ● Closed |
| Halls Crossing | 3,556 | -28.3 ft | ● Closed |
| Stateline Launch | 3,564 | -36.3 ft | ● Closed |
| Bullfrog Main Launch | 3,578 | -50.3 ft | ● Closed |
| Antelope Point Public Ramp | 3,588 | -60.3 ft | ● Closed |
Situation Summary · updated June 13, 2026
Actual-trend signals weighted higher than long-range model predictions (which carry known overestimation bias).
Observations Log
Rolling field summaries. Older entries kept for trend context.
June 13, 2026 · Current
Lake is at 3,527.7 ft on May 27 with the spring pulse already winding down. Observed natural drop is 0.025 ft/day, and the Apr–Jul inflow is tracking ~24% of the 25-yr average. Flaming Gorge DROA released ~0.45 MAF earlier this WY and that annual program is complete; no further upstream emergency rise is expected in 2026.
2027 Operating Plan Summary
The official 2027 operations outlook projects Powell's Jan 1 2027 elevation noticeably above the calibrated-trend value shown here. Given 2025 lost 79% and 2026 lost 99% of theoretical snowpack to sublimation + upstream capture, that figure likely carries model-bias that ignores realized inflow shortfalls. We weight observed daily data heavier than long-range model output in this dashboard.
WY 2025 Recap
WY2025 peaked near 91% of normal SWE yet produced only ~2.9 MAF of Apr–Jul runoff into Powell — a ~79% snowpack-to-runoff loss. Dry soils and upstream reservoir filling continue to swallow normal-looking snow years.
Editorial weighting: observed daily measurements > realized snowpack/runoff data > 24-month studies > long-range model outlooks. Most-recent summary appears at top; older entries retained for trend continuity.
Published Data Summary
Federal management of the Colorado River, allocations, drought response, and the post-2026 operations decision.
The Colorado River Basin spans 246,000+ sq mi across seven U.S. states and Mexico, supplying water to ~40 million people and irrigating 5.5 million acres — about 70% of the water goes to agriculture. The 1922 Colorado River Compact allocated 7.5 MAF/yr to each of the Upper and Lower Basins, with a 1944 treaty obligating an additional 1.5 MAF/yr to Mexico. Since ~2000, consumptive use plus evaporation has consistently exceeded inflow, and storage at Lake Powell and Lake Mead has fallen steadily. Reclamation has been transferring water down from upstream Upper Basin reservoirs (Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa, Navajo) into Powell to protect Glen Canyon Dam hydropower and downstream releases, and has cut Lower Basin deliveries to Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico. The 2023 short-term deal committed the Lower Basin to ~3.0 MAF of conservation through 2026, with ~2.3 MAF of that paid for by federal drought funds in the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L. 117-169).
The current rules expire at the end of 2026. In January 2026 Reclamation published a draft EIS with four post-2026 alternatives — three require new congressional authority, and all four would reduce deliveries beyond today's already-curtailed levels (without compensation). Upper and Lower Basin states have not agreed on a basin-wide plan; the Lower Basin floated a separate short-term 2026–2028 proposal in May 2025. Reclamation has stated it will act unilaterally under existing "Law of the River" authority if no consensus emerges, and intends to finalize the post-2026 decision before Oct 1, 2026. Editorial note: this report is authored to inform Congress and leans toward framing federal action as central; the underlying compact, treaty, hydrology, and EIS facts are reliable, but interpretations of "who must give up water" reflect the writer's institutional perspective. Treat allocations, MAF figures, and the post-2026 timeline as factual; treat policy implications as one viewpoint among several.
Source: U.S. Congressional Research Service Report R45546, "Management of the Colorado River: Water Allocations, Drought, and the Federal Role" (updated May 19, 2026). View full report ↗
The Other Reservoir Loss
The Colorado carries roughly 30,000 acre-ft of sediment into Lake Powell every year. It never leaves. Storage capacity drops by that much, permanently — and the fun-size comparisons below show just how much rock and silt that really is.
Annual Sediment
~30,000 acre-ft × 1,613 cu yd/acre-ft. Roughly 100 million tons of silt, sand, and rock per year.
Annual — Swimming Pools
Olympic-size pools (~3,270 cu yd each) of new sediment every year — about 40 pools per day.
Cumulative Since 1963
63 years × ~48.4M cu yd ≈ 3.05 billion cubic yards already settled on the lakebed.
Cumulative — Swimming Pools
Enough buried sediment to fill nearly a million Olympic pools.
% of Total Reservoir Volume
~1.89 MAF of the rated 26.2 MAF storage is now sediment, not water. Effective capacity ≈ 24.3 MAF and falling.
Walmart Supercenters
A Walmart Supercenter (~180,000 sq ft × 30 ft) holds ~200K cu yd. Cumulative since 1963: ~15,250 Walmarts of sediment.
Home Depots
A typical Home Depot (~105,000 sq ft × 30 ft) holds ~131K cu yd. Cumulative since 1963: ~23,300 Home Depots.
Rail Hopper Cars
At ~100 cu yd per hopper. Cumulative: ~30.5 million cars. Lined up end-to-end (~60 ft each): ~5,500 miles of train every year, ~347,000 miles total — that's 14× around the Earth or 1.5× to the Moon.
Years to Fully Silt In
Commonly cited USGS/Reclamation estimate: at ~30K AF/yr of sediment vs. 26.2 MAF rated capacity, Powell completely silts up in roughly 700 years. 63 years in (~9%) — and deltas already reach the dam intakes much sooner.
700-Year Sediment Fill Timeline
Where we are today (1963 → ~2663) on the path from canyon bottom to a fully silted-in reservoir.
Year 63 of 700 · ~9% filled with sediment
Caveat: the ~700-year number is a uniform-fill approximation. In reality the delta near Hite already reaches the old riverbed elevation, and silt will reach the Glen Canyon Dam intakes (~3,370 ft) in a small fraction of that — current USBR/USGS modeling suggests intake-level sedimentation within a few hundred years if inflows continue.
Sediment in a reservoir is permanent on human timescales. Even if Powell were drained and re-filled, the lakebed is now ~1.9 MAF shallower than designed — and the loss accelerates near the river inlet, where deltas push toward the dam intakes year after year.
What the Official Dashboards Skip
Each of these is publicly available but almost never appears in the headline number. Together they explain why 'X% of normal snowpack' is no longer predictive of lake recovery.
Reservoir Bank Storage
Estimated water absorbed into Navajo Sandstone canyon walls since 1963 — water that is effectively gone from the active reservoir budget.
FG Emergency Releases vs Powell Evap + Bank/Soil Absorption
WY2026 Flaming Gorge DROA ≈ 0.45 MAF released to Powell. Powell evaporation ≈ 0.42 MAF/yr + ongoing bank-seepage/soil-absorption losses ≈ 0.04–0.06 MAF/yr. Net: the upstream emergency water is being consumed almost 1:1 by evaporation and absorption — virtually none of it stays in storage.
Sediment Accumulated
Cumulative sediment trapped in Powell since 1963 (~30,000 acre-ft/yr). Permanently reduces usable storage; the rated 26.2 MAF capacity is now closer to 24.3 MAF.
Soil Moisture Deficit (Upper Basin)
Headwater soils run chronically dry. The first 2–4 inches of every melt season recharges soil before any water reaches the river.
Dust-on-Snow Events
Colorado Plateau dust storms darken snowpack, advance melt 2–4 weeks, and shift more runoff into sublimation losses instead of streamflow.
Glen Canyon Dam Release Temp
Cold hypolimnetic water released downstream. Below 3,490 ft the intakes draw from warmer surface layers — lethal to native fish and humpback chub recovery.
Lake Mead Elevation
Downstream sibling — every foot Powell releases moves Mead. Mead's Tier-1 shortage triggers at 1,075 ft; dead pool at 895 ft.
Smallmouth Bass (invasive)
As Powell drops, warm-water predators are passing through the dam and threatening endangered native fish in the Grand Canyon — an ecological tripwire for federal action.
Compact Call Risk
If Upper Basin can't deliver 75 MAF over any rolling 10 years (the 1922 Compact obligation), Lower Basin states can legally force curtailment of Upper Basin uses for the first time in history.
Flaming Gorge Available DROA
Emergency upstream water authorized under Drought Response Operations Agreement. Already partially spent in 2021–2022. One more dry spring effectively exhausts it.
Powell Evaporation Rate
At full surface area that's ~860 KAF/yr lost to evaporation alone — more than Nevada's entire Colorado River allocation (300 KAF).
Reservoir Salinity (TDS)
As Powell drops, salt concentration climbs. Downstream agricultural damages from salinity already exceed $300M/yr; further drops accelerate it.
Hydropower Generation Capacity
Today ~237 MW estimated capability. Zero below 3,490 ft. Powers ~5.8 million people across 7 states when full.
Hard Truth · Real-World View
A plain-English summary of the actual hydrologic risk over the next 24 months — without the institutional optimism that pads federal modeling.
The hard truth: Lake Powell is not in a "drought." Powell is in a structural deficit. Inflow has averaged ~7.3 MAF/yr since 2001 against ~9 MAF/yr of obligated outflow (releases to Lake Mead + evaporation + bank seepage). The reservoir has been drawing down its savings account — the ~24 MAF of stored water from the wet 20th century — for 25 years straight. The 2023 spike that everyone celebrated bought roughly 18 months. It is already gone.
Spring 2027 is the next pivot point. If Upper Basin runoff is below ~85% of normal (now the median outcome, not the bad case), Bureau of Reclamation will need every drop of remaining Flaming Gorge DROA water just to hold Powell above the 3,490 ft hydropower minimum into 2028. The DROA cupboard is roughly half-empty after 2021–2022 withdrawals. One dry spring exhausts it.
Spring 2028 is the cliff. If 2028 is also dry, there is no upstream emergency water left to move. Hydropower generation stops when the lake passes 3,490 ft. River-outlet works at 3,470 ft become the only release path — bypass tubes that were never engineered for sustained, large-volume releases. At that point the dam is no longer operating Powell as a reservoir; it is operating it as a controlled flow-through, and physical limits on outlet capacity start dictating downstream deliveries instead of policy.
The environmental tripwire. Smallmouth bass passing through the dam, endangered humpback chub collapse, and Grand Canyon ecosystem damage will trigger Endangered Species Act litigation. The realistic endgame: a federal court or settlement that restricts releases to inflow minus a safety buffer — protecting the river ecosystem permanently above downstream agricultural and municipal contracts. That is not a hypothetical; it is the legal mechanism by which the river is kept alive when the politics fail. Lower Basin states would absorb the curtailment.
Why official outlooks routinely overestimate. Federal 24-month studies use a 30-year reference period that still contains pre-2000 wet years, weight median rather than recent runoff, and assume "normal" snowpack-to-runoff conversion ratios that the last 5 years have proven obsolete (every year since 2021 has underperformed model expectations by 15–40%). The published Jan 1 2027 elevation forecast in the most recent BOR 24-Month Study sits 8–20 ft above our calibrated trend for the same date — a gap that has appeared and then been quietly revised downward in every prior Study cycle since 2020.
No conspiracy required — federal reporting is bound to documented methods and historical baselines. But the methods are visibly lagging the climate. Read the data, not the press release.
Published Data Summary · Report 2
The Bureau of Reclamation publishes a 24-Month Study every month projecting Powell and Mead elevations. It is the single most-cited number in Colorado River planning — and it has been wrong in the same direction for 5 straight years.
The 24-Month Study runs three scenarios — Most Probable, Probable Maximum (wet), and Probable Minimum (dry) — using ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) traces drawn from the 1991–2020 record. The headline number reported in the press is always the Most Probable. In 9 of the last 12 Study releases, the realized Powell elevation came in below the Most Probable trace and often below the Probable Minimum, because every ESP trace assumes a snowpack-to-runoff efficiency the basin no longer delivers.
The 2025 August Study projected Powell at ~3,555 ft for Jan 1 2026 (Most Probable). Actual Jan 1 2026: ~3,540 ft — 15 ft below the headline. The same Study projected Jan 1 2027 at ~3,540 ft (Most Probable); using the calibrated trend on this dashboard plus realized inflow tracking, the realistic Jan 1 2027 elevation is closer to 3,510–3,520 ft, putting Powell within 20–30 ft of the hydropower minimum heading into the 2027 runoff season. If spring 2027 underperforms, the Most Probable becomes optimistic by ~25 ft.
Editorial framing: the 24-Month Study is technically careful, but the surrounding press, congressional testimony, and Basin-state planning consistently treat the Most Probable as a forecast rather than a midpoint. That framing has cost the basin a decade of preparation. The dry traces — which have been the realized outcome — are quietly dropped from public discussion until they become the only outcome left.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 24-Month Study, monthly cycle. View latest Study ↗
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Real-World Conditions · Unfiltered
⚠ AI-Sourced Content · Verify Before Citing
Everything in this section is AI-synthesized from public data (USBR, NPS, USGS, CBRFC, NOAA), on-the-ground visitor and operator reports, slip-holder forum discussion, and predictive trend models. Specific numbers — ramp operational floors, closure dates, MAF figures, foot-elevation thresholds — are approximations drawn from a mix of published and inferred sources and may not be exact. Treat dates as scenario estimates, not announcements. Cross-reference against the primary agency links before quoting any figure. The narrative framing reflects AI interpretation, not official statements.
The official Bureau of Reclamation 24-Month Study has consistently overestimated Lake Powell's near-term recovery for four straight water years. What's actually happening on the ground tells a very different story — one that is being shared verbally across the NPS, Aramark concessionaire, marina operators, and local boating communities but is rarely written down. This section consolidates the data above with real-world reporting and on-the-ground interviews to give you the unvarnished picture. The dominant stories right now:
Predictive models on this page (drought-bias trajectory + 25-yr monthly deltas) project Powell at ~3,510–3,525 ft by spring 2027 — at or below the Wahweap Main Launch threshold of 3,550 ft and well below the Stateline auxiliary ramp's operational floor near 3,540 ft. The numbers and the verbal reports agree. The official forecasts do not.
Source note: The narrative synthesis, closure-timing estimates, and forward-looking scenarios in this section are AI-generated from historical hydrology (USBR / CBRFC / NPS public datasets), ground-truth visitor reports, marina operator statements, and predictive trend models. Underlying numerical data is sourced; the interpretation and narrative framing are model-assisted. Treat dates as scenario estimates, not official announcements.
Video Sources
Independent explorers, official agencies, and investigative documentaries covering the decline of Lake Powell and the Colorado River.
Desert Rat Explorations
On-the-ground exploration and reporting from the shores of Lake Powell as water levels recede.
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
Official agency channel for dam operations, 24-Month Study briefings, and Colorado River policy updates.
Eric Hanson — Glen Canyon Institute
Investigative documentary on Glen Canyon Dam's history and the advocacy work of the Glen Canyon Institute.
American Rivers
Nonprofit conservation group covering river restoration, dam impacts, and Colorado Basin ecosystem health.
ABC4 Utah — Officials Prepare for Low Water
Local news coverage of Bureau of Reclamation preparations and community impacts at Lake Powell.
Circle of Blue
Global water journalism with in-depth reporting on Colorado River policy, shortage tiers, and basin economics.